Category Predictions

2017 Preseason analysis

2017 marks one of the largest changes in the history of Formula 1. Not since 1966, when engine sizes were doubled, have the sport’s rule-makers introduced full-format changes with the primary intent of making the cars faster and more exciting. Instead, we have become accustomed to changes designed to curb speeds and improve safety, which […]

2016 Junior Driver Rankings

As Formula 1 teams are making their final selections for 2017, it is a good time to consider the quality of the incoming junior crop, and identify who is likely to make headlines in coming years. Junior career metrics Over the past three years on this blog, I have presented and tweaked some metrics for assessing junior careers. […]

2016 Preseason Form Guide

With testing finished, I continued my earlier analysis to form a clearer picture of the team hierarchy as we go to Melbourne. This time I have taken both tyre degradation and fuel loads into account. Making predictions in F1 is extremely difficult, as I found out in a previous analysis of F1 economics. Nevertheless, I think there are significant insights to […]

First look at the 2016 cars

I was as excited as anyone to see the 2016 cars hit the track in Barcelona. After a winter of boasts from Ferrari, Renault, and Honda about the progress they have made, we finally have a chance to properly assess where they all stand. Often we are told that “testing times are meaningless”, but it’s important to […]

2015 model-based driver rankings

Last year, I presented model-based rankings for all the 2014 season drivers. These rankings are derived from a mathematical model, described here, that statistically estimates the strength of driver and team performances in each year, as well as overall career performances for drivers. It achieves this by finding the best fit to all race result […]

A reconstructed history of Formula 1

I grew up reading many Formula 1 fact books and encyclopedias. Despite their different sources, ages, and authors (all English language, I should mention), they told approximately the same story of Formula 1 history, with the same heroes and villains. Drivers with two or more titles were usually considered the “true greats”, joined by a select […]

How money predicts success in Formula 1

The cost of even competing in Formula 1 is astronomical. The teams collectively spend over $2 billion annually — either immensely impressive or depressing, depending on your perspective. About half of those funds come from FOM prize money. The rest is made up by investments from manufacturers, sponsors, and pay-drivers. Spending priorities are very different […]