Category Predictions

Historical hypotheticals: Part I

What if Ayrton Senna had survived the crash at Imola 1994? What if Robert Kubica had never entered that fateful rally? The history of Formula 1 is sadly abundant with drivers cut down at or before their peak. In this five-part series, I will apply the f1metrics model of driver and team performance to simulating […]

2018 preseason analysis

With the wraps off the new halo-adorned cars, we launch into 2018. There are several major sources of intrigue at the dawn of the season. Can Renault, with three top-budget teams now in their ranks, take the fight to the Mercedes or Ferrari works teams? By what margin can 2018 cars exceed the already record-breaking […]

2017 junior driver rankings

As we wait for the 2018 season to fire up, and as Williams resolve the Kubica-Sirotkin-Wehrlein trilemma, it seems a good time to update the annual junior driver rankings. As in previous years, I’m using a simple scoring system that can be easily computed by hand. It takes into account the different tiers of junior […]

2017 Preseason analysis

2017 marks one of the largest changes in the history of Formula 1. Not since 1966, when engine sizes were doubled, have the sport’s rule-makers introduced full-format changes with the primary intent of making the cars faster and more exciting. Instead, we have become accustomed to changes designed to curb speeds and improve safety, which […]

2016 Junior Driver Rankings

As Formula 1 teams are making their final selections for 2017, it is a good time to consider the quality of the incoming junior crop, and identify who is likely to make headlines in coming years. Junior career metrics Over the past three years on this blog, I have presented and tweaked some metrics for assessing junior careers. […]

2016 Preseason Form Guide

With testing finished, I continued my earlier analysis to form a clearer picture of the team hierarchy as we go to Melbourne. This time I have taken both tyre degradation and fuel loads into account. Making predictions in F1 is extremely difficult, as I found out in a previous analysis of F1 economics. Nevertheless, I think there are significant insights to […]

First look at the 2016 cars

I was as excited as anyone to see the 2016 cars hit the track in Barcelona. After a winter of boasts from Ferrari, Renault, and Honda about the progress they have made, we finally have a chance to properly assess where they all stand. Often we are told that “testing times are meaningless”, but it’s important to […]