Category History
The f1metrics top 100
Who was the greatest F1 driver of all time? It is an endlessly debated question amongst fans and pundits alike. If the only aspect we care about is the number of titles or grand prix wins, then the answer is straightforward. Yet, as F1 fans, we recognize that the question is far more complicated. F1 […]
Historical hypotheticals: Part V (Gilles Villeneuve & Michael Schumacher)
While most of the work I do on this blog is fairly serious analysis, this series has been an enjoyable, less serious side project. This is the final part of this five-part series, in which I apply the f1metrics model of driver and team performance to simulating historical hypothetical situations. If you want to check […]
Historical hypotheticals: Part IV (Alesi, Behra, Cevert)
Welcome to the fourth part of this five-part series, in which I apply the f1metrics model of driver and team performance to simulating historical hypothetical situations. This time, it’s a French edition, covering three famous French drivers who didn’t get to deliver their full potential in F1. If you want to check out the previous […]
A new f1metrics model
Recently, I decided it was time to make some improvements to the f1metrics model. Modeling is usually an iterative process. A model is defined, its performance is evaluated, and the lessons learned are fed back into the model definition. This process can in theory go on forever. Models are (by definition) reduced abstractions of […]
Historical hypotheticals: Part III (Bellof and ex-champion comebacks)
Welcome to the third part of this five-part series, in which I apply the f1metrics model of driver and team performance to simulating historical hypothetical situations. If you want to check out the previous articles in this series, they are linked here: Part I (Senna, Pryce, Brise) Part II (Kubica, Clark, Donohue, Revson) Method For […]
Historical hypotheticals: Part II (Kubica, Clark, Donohue, Revson)
Welcome to the second part of this five-part series, in which I apply the f1metrics model of driver and team performance to simulating historical hypothetical situations. Consider this a quantitative approach to tackling some popular but difficult to resolve talking points in Formula 1 history. The point of this series is not to be taken […]
Historical hypotheticals: Part I (Senna, Pryce, Brise)
What if Ayrton Senna had survived the crash at Imola 1994? What if Robert Kubica had never entered that fateful rally? The history of Formula 1 is sadly abundant with drivers cut down at or before their peak. In this five-part series, I will apply the f1metrics model of driver and team performance to simulating […]
Do drivers influence mechanical reliability?
Car reliability has always played a central role in Formula 1 — an inevitable consequence of teams not wanting to leave any potential performance unexploited. Mechanical DNFs at inopportune times have decided numerous championships. Who can forget Mansell’s puncture at Adelaide 1986 or Hamilton’s shock engine failure at Malaysia 2016? Many of the sport’s most […]
Experts versus models: How do we rank drivers?
Who was a greater Formula 1 driver: Nigel Mansell or Elio de Angelis? Expert panels have uniformly selected Mansell. Raw statistics of success — wins, championships, and the like — also clearly favor Mansell. Yet, every mathematical model of driver rankings developed to date resoundingly answers de Angelis. Examining the data table below helps to […]
2015 model-based driver rankings
Last year, I presented model-based rankings for all the 2014 season drivers. These rankings are derived from a mathematical model, described here, that statistically estimates the strength of driver and team performances in each year, as well as overall career performances for drivers. It achieves this by finding the best fit to all race result […]
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